- CQF Program
- Events
- Resources »
- Membership
- Careers »
- About Us »
Open Filter
Gambler's Ruin
The term “gambler’s ruin” is used for a number of statistical ideas whose common denominator is predicting the eventual outcome of a series of repeated bets.
Thu 22 Jun 2023
Do not Forget the Economy when Estimating Default Probabilities
Traditional rating systems do not include macroeconomic variables. This article shows techniques to integrate macroeconomic information into a rating model and then illustrates how the macroeconomic variables improve the performance of a model for small and medium sized companies.
Tue 17 Jan 2023
Pricing Credit Derivatives with Uncertain Default Probabilities
In this article, the author presents a model for pricing credit spread options in an environment where the rating transition probabilities are uncertain parameters.
Tue 11 Oct 2022
The Chemistry of Contagious Defaults
In this article, the authors have obtained a dynamical Markovian model of default interactions that describes portfolio’s dynamics endogenously through the mechanism of chemical reactions.
Thu 1 Sep 2022
VaR as a Percentile
In this white paper Dr. Richard Diamond expands on the concept of Value at Risk (VAR) from a formula based on the critical value, to its true definition of being a property of the joint probability distribution of risk factors.
Fri 4 Apr 2014
