Video Description
Large language models are now ubiquitous, and with them the ability to read, summarise and structure text that was out of reach a decade ago. One deliverable in particular has become almost trivial: the extraction of semantic triples – node, edge, node – from unstructured corpora at scale. This has put an old question back on the table. If building a firm network no longer requires hand-curated data, are the signals that a semantic network produces worth anything in the cross-section, and if so, what kind of thing are they?
We build a knowledge graph of global developed-market equities from twenty-five million LLM-extracted triples and use it to settle a single question: is a semantic centrality signal compensation for a risk exposure, or a genuine pricing error?
We first set out what centrality means on a graph of this kind, introducing the familiar measures – degree, Katz, PageRank, eigenvector – and explaining which we take forward and why. We then sort firms on point-in-time centrality within a large global universe, form a central-minus-peripheral long-short, and take it through the tests the network-signal literature usually stops short of. We ask whether the spread survives a standard external six-factor model. We characterise what the long and short legs actually hold – their size, their volatility, how heavily the corpus writes about them – so that any premium can be named rather than merely labelled. Finally, we ask whether the wiring of the network matters at all, by rewiring the graph while preserving each firm’s number of connections.
Speaker Bio
Tony Guida
Tony Guida is a Quantitative Portfolio Manager, researcher, and author with expertise in systematic investing, machine learning, and financial data science. He currently works on the integration of large language models (LLMs) and knowledge graphs into investment processes for a Swiss asset manager.
Tony began his career at Unigestion in 2006, joining the quantitative equity team as a research analyst. He later became a member of the Research and Investment Committee for Minimum Variance Strategies, where he led the factor investing research group for institutional clients. In 2015, he joined EDHEC-Risk Scientific Beta as a Senior Consultant, focusing on risk allocation and multi-factor strategies. In 2016, Tony moved to a major UK pension fund, where he built an in-house systematic equity strategy and co-managed a £8 billion portfolio as Senior Quantitative Portfolio Manager.
In 2019, he joined RAM Active Investments as a Senior Quantitative Researcher in equities, later co-heading the systematic macro hedge fund offering. In 2023, Tony co-founded a hedge fund, where he served as Co-Head of Research and Portfolio Manager, leading the development of cross-asset, machine learning-driven investment strategies.
Tony holds Bachelor’s and Master’s degrees in Econometrics, and a Master’s in Economics and Finance. He has authored and edited several industry-leading books, including:
- Big Data and Machine Learning in Quantitative Investment (Wiley, 2018)
- Machine Learning for Factor Investing: R Version (CRC, 2020)
- Machine Learning for Factor Investing: Python Version (CRC, 2023)
He is also an Advisory Board Member for the Financial Data Professional Institute and serves as a peer reviewer for academic journals in machine learning and finance.