Video Description
A Talk from Volatility and Risk Conference 2025
We derive an exact relationship between the profit-and-loss (P&L) of a trend-following system with exponentially moving average (EWMA) filter and the auto-correlation function of returns generating stochastic process. This generic result appears to be new. Using this formula, we analyse the impact of the lookback span of EWMA filter on the P&L of the trend-following system when returns dynamics are driven by auto-regressive fractal processes with long memory. We show that the trend-following system is expected to perform well when autocorrelation of returns is positive over longer time scales, even if returns may exhibit mean-reversion over shorter time scales.
In the empirical part, we examine the autocorrelation observed in major futures markets and the performance of different trend-following systems applied to futures markets. We discuss and contrast the so-called American and European specifications of trend-following systems. Finally, we demonstrate the defensive profile of trend-following systems which provides diversification benefits to long-only portfolios.
Speaker Bio
Dr. Artur Sepp
Artur Sepp is the Global Head of Investment Services Quant Group at LGT bank in Zurich focusing on quantitative asset allocation and systematic investment strategies. Artur has almost 20 years of experience in financial markets, including heading quant research and portfolio management at a systematic hedge fund and a family office, as well as leading development of front-office quant strategies and derivatives at private (Julius Baer) and investment banks (Merrill Lynch/BofA). Artur has a PhD in Mathematical Statistics from the University of Tartu, an MSc in Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences from Northwestern University, and a BA cum laude in Mathematical Economics from Tallinn University of Technology. His expertise covers quantitative investing and asset allocation, quantitative modelling of derivative securities, machine learning and data science, and blockchain applications within decentralised finance. He is the author and coauthor of several research articles on quantitative finance published in key journals. Artur won the Quant of the Year Award from Risk Magazine (2024). He is an active martial arts practitioner in his free time.