Video Description
A Talk from Annual Conference 2024
In the past decade, machine learning techniques have been widely adopted in the equities space, driving innovation both in academia and among practitioners. Leveraging the rich data environment of single-name equities, these advancements have unlocked new insights in quantitative finance. However, the application of machine learning in commodities futures markets remains underexplored, primarily due to the “data-poor” nature of this asset class compared to equities. This research investigates the use of machine learning in systematic commodities futures trading, expanding beyond the traditional price-based strategies that have dominated the field. We integrate well-established factor-based signals, commonly used in commodities investing, as inputs into our machine learning models. Our findings demonstrate that machine learning enhances the evolution of systematic commodities strategies, offering a more adaptable and comprehensive framework for forecasting market behavior and constructing long-short portfolios. Utilizing a 30-year dataset of 44 commodities futures contracts, we train machine learning models to predict future performance and build long-short portfolios. The results indicate that these models not only rival the performance of traditional systematic approaches but also provide deeper insights into market dynamics and critical factors influencing commodities asset pricing.
Speaker Bio
Tony Guida
Tony Guida is a Quantitative Portfolio Manager and researcher. He began his career at Unigestion in 2006, joining the quantitative equity team as a research analyst. He later became a member of the Research and Investment Committee for Minimum Variance Strategies, where he led the factor investing research group for institutional clients. In 2015, Tony moved to Edhec Risk Scientific Beta as a Senior Consultant, specializing in risk allocation and factor strategies. In 2016, he joined a major UK pension fund to build an in-house systematic equity strategy, co-managing £8 billion as a Senior Quantitative Portfolio Manager.
In January 2019, Tony joined RAM Active Investments as a Senior Quantitative Researcher in equities, eventually co-heading the systematic macro hedge fund offering. In 2023, he co-founded a hedge fund, serving as Co-Head of Research and Chief Data Scientist, focusing on systematic cross-asset strategies.
Tony holds Bachelor’s and Master’s degrees in Econometrics, Economics, and Finance from the University of Savoy, France. He has co-authored and edited several books on the application of machine learning in finance, including:
• Big Data and Machine Learning in Quantitative Investment (Wiley, 2018)
• Machine Learning for Factor Investing, R Version (CRC, 2020)
• Machine Learning for Factor Investing, Python Version (CRC, 2023)
He is also an advisory board member for the Financial Data Professional Institute and serves as a reviewer for machine learning papers in several academic journals.